Opinion: Draft analysis of potential first-round pick Sensabaugh

Gaurav Law
Thu, 15 Jun 2023 00:26:27 +0000
Basketball, Instagram Page, News, Sports, Big Ten, Big Ten conference, Big Ten conference play, Big Ten Play, Bowen Hardman, Brice Sensabaugh, Bruce Thornton, Buckeyes, buckeyes basketball, Buckeyes men's basketball, Chris Holtmann, Colby Baumann, conference play, David Egelhoff, Eugene Brown III, Felix Okpara, holtmann, Isaac Likekele, Jack Owens, Jake Diebler, Jamison Battle, John McCausland, Justice Sueing, Kalen Etzler, KenPom, KenPom rankings, Kyle Davis, march madness [and 22 more]

Former Ohio State basketball player Brice Sensabaugh (10) running down the court during then No. 25 Ohio State-Rutgers game on Dec. 27. Ohio State won 67-66. Credit: Zachary Rilley | Lantern Photo File

With the NBA season coming to a close Monday night, all eyes have now shifted to the 2023 Draft. Of course, the big names off the board first will be France’s Victor Wembanyama, G League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson, Alabama’s Brandon Miller and more.

Traveling slightly further down the list of prospects, however, is a familiar name to Ohio State basketball fans: Brice Sensabaugh. In his first and only season with the Buckeyes, his draft stock skyrocketed as he led the team in points and rebounds per game and 3-point percentage — minimum 50 attempts.

Sensabaugh could be the second consecutive one-and-done Ohio State player to get drafted in the first round. But how does he stack up against other first-round prospects?

Freshman Numbers

Though the draft is packed with young talent, Sensabaugh’s numbers stand out at the college level.

His 16.3 point-per-game average might seem low, but a more in-depth look reveals something interesting: Sensabaugh only averaged 24.5 minutes per game this season, roughly 0.67 points per minute. If he played the same 30.5 minutes his teammate Bruce Thornton did, that number can be scaled up to nearly 20.3 points per game, which would rank 21st in the country, above Iowa forward and Associated Press Third-Team All-American Kris Murray.

If that looks like a high number for a true freshman, it’s really not surprising based on his other stats. According to Sports Reference College Basketball Advanced Stats, Sensabaugh had the fourth-highest usage rate in the nation at 34 percent —?it’s clear how much the Buckeyes relied on him this season. It might be tough for this much weight to be put on his shoulders as a rookie, but there is no doubt he can develop into a solid role player within his first few seasons.

High-volume scoring can bring low accuracy, but not for Sensabaugh. His 48.2 percent from the field ranked third among freshmen in the nation and seventh overall in the Big Ten. He seemed to have been the only highly scouted player out of the top-five freshmen in the category.

Sensabaugh also poses an active threat at the free throw line: He shot 83 percent this season – fifth among freshmen, according to NCAA.com. Based on the eye test and a mere comparison of college-pro stats, it’s fair to say Sensabaugh will be able to keep this efficiency up from the line. Beyond the numbers, Sensabaugh is good at getting to the line —?he can dominate smaller guards and draw fouls easily.

Shooter’s Touch

Sensabaugh can use his wide frame and 235-pound body to back down defenders into the paint and either take the floater or attempt a tougher look with his turnaround midrange fadeaway. Though he wasn’t known for his astute passing abilities, he will draw the defense in the post and can dish it out for a 3-pointer or to a cutting man.

For his size, the Orlando, Florida, native is fast but needs to be quicker off the dribble. Sensabaugh’s one-dribble pull-up jumper is comparable to that of Klay Thompson’s with a quick release, and he has sharp footwork and size to add to his offensive package.

Iowa head coach Fran McCaffrey said after a 93-77 loss to Ohio State Jan. 21 that Sensabaugh makes a heavy impact on the offensive end.

“He’s a tremendous shotmaker,” McCaffrey said. “You’ve got to make him play defense. But he scores in a variety of ways from everywhere. It’s not just [that] he’s a 3-point shooter — he’s a driver. He’s got a terrific mid-range game, it’s kind of a lost art, but he’s as good as anybody I’ve seen in that area.”

Minnesota head coach Ben Johnson had similar thoughts after a 70-67 Jan. 12 win over the Buckeyes.

“We just wanted to create space and just kind of wall up and make him play through us and just try to force him to take tough twos,” Johnson said. “He’s a good enough player where you’re not going to shut him out, but just make him work for every catch and just not give him anything easy.”

Despite struggling early on against Minnesota, Sensabaugh finished with 18 points.

Both Purdue head coach Matt Painter and Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard said Sensabaugh is very tough to guard and sometimes “you’re just hoping” you can stop him.

However, much like past Ohio State one-and-done players, Sensabaugh is such a good offensive player that he has not saved much for the other side of the ball.

Los Angeles Lakers guard and former Buckeye D’Angelo Russell has made a career of being an average shooter, but being a very poor defender. His on-ball defense at Ohio State was good but the NBA has not seen that skill since he was an all-star with the Brooklyn Nets in 2019.

Similarly, San Antonio Spurs guard Malaki Branham, who just finished his rookie season, was never known for his defense, even at Ohio State. Though he has gained strength, he still does not have great lateral quickness, making him a liability on defense.

Sensabaugh was another poor defender in Columbus. Opposing teams would attack him as a weak point in the Buckeye defense — he had a slow recovery and close-out times and would allow anyone to get past him. Russell and Branham are not stout defenders by any means, but Sensabaugh has a size advantage on both of them. If he can develop some defensive skills this offseason, he can progress into a versatile defender who can guard positions 1-4.

Even less than halfway through the season, Sensabaugh said he knew he had to keep improving on both ends of the floor.

“There’s definitely still room [to grow]. I think it’s a testament to the work that we put in — we put in a great deal of work throughout these first months and we don’t take any shortcuts and we work really hard and we don’t waste any time or movements,” Sensabaugh said Dec. 6, 2022.

Sensabaugh needs to get better on the defensive end, especially, and it’s good he recognizes that as a 19-year-old rather than later in his career.

Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann said Dec. 5, 2022, that he wanted Sensabaugh to improve his defense and awareness on the court, but that his conditioning has been very good.“

He’s taken strides in that area, but he’s got a ways to go [with awareness],” Holtmann said. “I just think that he — up to this point, right now — it’s been very intentional about wanting to get better in that area.”

To Where?

Sensabaugh is a consensus first-round pick and is projected as high as No. 17 to the Lakers, ironically, and as low as No. 30 to the Los Angeles Clippers, according to Bleacher Report and various other sources. Every team in this range, besides maybe the Golden State Warriors, is in dire need of shooters — Sensabaugh can bring three-level scoring and quickness but needs space to play isolation ball and do what he does best. The top best fits, then, would be the Lakers, Brooklyn Nets or Memphis Grizzlies.

Since the Lakers have a lot of stagnation with the ball, Sensabaugh could fit in very well if he ever wants to go to work. However, with a facilitator like LeBron James who has been vying for shooters since 2020, Sensabaugh could turn into a catch-and-shoot three-player, which could work well. The Lakers also relied a lot on their role players this playoff; Sensabaugh could become a part of that offense.

While the Nets rebuild around a very solid young core, it couldn’t hurt to add another one to the mix. Sensabaugh could look to take the minutes of the aging Joe Harris combined with that of the extremely inefficient Cam Thomas. He could also be a catch-and-shoot player in Brooklyn.

Finally, with Memphis, forward Dillon Brooks has already been informed that “he will not be brought back under any circumstances,” per multiple NBA sources. That’s one less average shooter on the team. Again, with a strong young core, Sensabaugh could add to this team’s depth and crack the rotation. Head coach Taylor Jenkins likes to run deep with his numbers and would not mind adding a great all-around scorer.

The 2023 NBA Draft begins June 22 at 8 p.m. on ESPN and ABC. Tune in to find out where Sensabaugh’s next journey will begin.