A map of the Big Ten after USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington were added to the conference on July 1, 2024. Credit: Reid Murray | Former Managing Editor for Design
Entering this season, teams in the Big Ten had not lost eight or more nonconference games through the first three weeks since 2018.
This year, it lost eight through just two weeks.
For a conference that has won the past three national championships, the early results could be an early sign of a down year.
Yet national college football media experts remain confident in the conference’s top teams and say it is too early to determine whether the Big Ten will match the success it has produced in recent seasons.
“It’s too early to determine [if they are having a down year],” Brett McMurphy, a college football writer for On3, said. “Every Big Ten team that finishes with at least 10 wins will get in the playoff. Is that two, three or half a dozen? We’ll find out.”
Since the College Football Playoff expanded from four to 12 teams in 2024, the Big Ten has sent at least three teams to the playoff in each of the first two years. During that span, Ohio State and Indiana have both brought national championships home to the conference.
As the season enters Week 4, only two Big Ten teams, Ohio State and Indiana, are currently in ESPN’s projected playoff field.
Heather Dinich, a college football analyst and senior writer for ESPN, said that while the playoff picture currently looks that way, she still believes teams such as Penn State and USC can play their way into the field by the end of the season.
“I certainly wouldn’t take a snapshot of what we’re seeing today and lock it in for selection day,” Dinich said. “Penn State has one of the most manageable schedules of any of these teams in the top 25 and I’m big on USC until they prove me wrong.”
Of the eight losses the conference suffered through two weeks, perhaps the most surprising came when Oregon lost on the road 39-31 to unranked Oklahoma State. Oregon entered the matchup ranked No. 6 in the nation and was viewed as a legitimate national championship contender, but has since slid to No. 20.
Adam Rittenberg, a senior college football writer for ESPN, said there is reason for concern surrounding the Ducks, which will travel to play No. 12 USC this week in a game with significant implications for both teams as they try to build their playoff résumés.
“Oregon just hasn’t looked good at all against non-FCS teams so far,” Rittenberg said. “This will be a big week, as USC is another team that may enter that playoff conversation and they’ve got to start winning games like Oregon at home.”
Ohio State had not lost either of its first two games to start a season since 2021, when it lost at home to Oregon. In a top-five matchup at Texas in Week 2, Ohio State saw a 20-3 lead crumble in the second half before losing to the Longhorns, 24-23.
Experts are not out on Ohio State, though, believing the loss will not deter the Buckeyes’ season or expectations to the same degree as Oregon’s loss.
“I think Ohio State [having] a one-point loss on the road in Austin isn’t going to derail their season,” Nicole Auerbach, a college football insider for NBC Sports, said. “I think back to 2014, when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech, and things rebounded as they ended up making the playoff and then winning a national title.”
Although there is still overall belief in the conference and its chances of winning a national championship, there is concern about its depth after seven teams suffered losses to nonconference opponents through Week 2.
Chip Patterson, a writer for CBS Sports, said in an email the losses could affect how the College Football Playoff selection committee views strong conference wins later in the season.
“Those nonconference losses to power conference opponents can lessen the chances of a high-end Big Ten team being able to potentially count on [mid-tier] teams providing opportunities for ranked wins,” he said.
